Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Toronto Raptors/LA Clippers Over 237 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 9:30 PM CT on SportsNet LA
It seems like someone gave the Raptors a brand new personality for Christmas this year. Their past 10 games have seen an incredible shift in scoring, going 8-2 to the over in the process. Those games have averaged 245.6 points, with Toronto’s opponents scoring 121.5 points, so things are getting wild and the Raptors are having issues defensively.
That will be bad news for them here against this excellent Clippers offense that we’ve seen take off over the past month. Especially with Toronto on no rest here after playing a very high-possessions game against the Lakers last night. I’d also except the Raptors to get some foul calls after their coach went off about the massive disparity last night, which helps to buoy scoring. But the new style of Toronto and the elite offense from LA should be what gets this over the total tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Louisville @ Miami -15.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network
Give credit to Louisville for not being as completely awful as expected this season and improving over last year’s trainwreck. But they’re heading into a buzzsaw here in a matchup that does them no favors. Miami is returning home after a frustrating OT loss, looking to take it out on someone, and this team just dominates bad opponents on their home floor.
The Canes are 6-3 ATS at home this season, with one of the higher average margins of victory in the country at plus-24.7 points. Their offense is the reason why, as this is the 7th-best effective field goal percentage team and 2nd-best from beyond the arc. Louisville really can’t shoot in general and their offense falls off a cliff away from home, scoring just 0.959 points per possession. I think only one team will be making shots tonight, and Miami should be able to run away with this one.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) North Carolina/NC State Under 154.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN
This total is built entirely on perception, and is trying to sucker you into taking the over. I’m not falling for it because both UNC and NC State have completely changed how they play now that conference games have started. These teams are a combined 5-1 under this total in ACC play, with the one over needing overtime to get there.
Behind UNC’s perception as an up-tempo team is their elite defense, ranked 15th in adjusted efficiency this season. The Heels aren’t getting out and running as much either, plus this slower-paced Wolfpack squad should be able to slow things down on their home floor. This will also be a clean game as neither team commits turnovers, so fast-break points will be limited. Neither team is elite shooting the ball, they neutralize each other’s dominant post players, and I just don’t see this game reaching such a high total tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Tiny Nick is 1915-1719 ATS (+87.5 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.